Opening Bell: Equities Rally, U.S. Futures Wobble; Silver Soars; Oil Slumps

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  • US lawmakers continue trying to reach deal on a COVID-19 economic relief
  • ADP release suggests weak job market, potentially slowing economic growth

Key Events

The global equity rally seemed to lose momentum on Thursday, and futures for the , , and wavered, as US lawmakers remained mired in a stalemate over additional stimulus amid struggles with shutdowns as coronavirus outbreaks flare.

European stocks were whipsawed this morning after a mixed Asian session.

Yields headed lower. Gold and silver gains continued and oil fluctuated.

Global Financial Affairs

After a raucous open, stocks in Europe are lower at time of writing.  The Index extended an earlier drop after the BoE warned that it will take the UK economy till the end of the next year to recoup COVID-19 related losses.

However, the pan-European index briefly flipped into positive territory, possibly pricing in Germany’s better than expected . We are under the impression that currently investors are sensitive to any small change, perhaps too easily pivoting from one direction to another.

Having beaten earnings forecasts, Siemens (DE:) surged, (+ 3%). Conversely, after announcing it was halting its dividend because of falling profits, ITV (LON:) plunged.

Thursday’s trading in Asia was uneven. Among the gainers, South Korea’s outperformed, (+1.3%), after Samsung Electronics (KS:), the country’s largest company, unveiled three new smartphone models which it hopes will revive sinking sales.  Australia’s , (+0.5%), was lifted by strong acceleration in commodity prices which were boosted by expectations that China’s economy is on the mend since the country appears to have largely recovered from the pandemic.

Losing indices this morning included Hong Kong’s , which underperformed, (-0.7%), as did Japan’s (-0.4%).

On Wednesday, The extended a rally to a fourth straight day on and hopes lawmakers might finally come to some resolution on the government’s next coronavirus aid package. The benchmark index came within 2% of its February record, wiping out any losses from the COVID-19 selloff. The added yet another record.

Yields, including for the 10-year Treasury, returned to a decline.

UST 10Y Daily

Rates remained within a falling channel only 2 basis points from the record low.

The was off its lows, for the third time at these levels.

DXY Daily

DXY Daily

The greenback appeared to have found its footing, again, remaining above the uptrend line since 2011, peaking at the bottom of the chart in red, by 92.00.

—like equities—is climbing for the fourth straight day, testing yesterday’s intraday highs.

Gold Daily

The yellow metal’s current move comes after it broke through the top of a rising channel, blowing the RSI and MACD into extreme overbought conditions.

The contradictory message being sent by safe haven gold at record highs even as stocks are at or near record levels becomes even more discordant after yesterday’s missed estimates. It suggests the pickup in coronavirus cases is putting the brakes on the job market.

—which higher after the portside explosion in Beirut initially sparked fears of a supply disruption out of the Middle East—pared gains.

Oil Daily

Oil Daily

Technically, WTI is now contending with a shooting star, whose long upper shadow makes it especially bearish, confirming the July highs.

Up Ahead

  • US and claims are due on Thursday.
  • Germany’s June figures are scheduled for release on Friday.
  • The July report prints Friday.

Market Moves

Stocks

  • The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.1%.
  • Futures on the S&P 500 Index increased 0.2%.
  • NASDAQ futures climbed 0.2%.
  • The rose 0.1%.

Currencies

  • The Dollar Index rose 0.05% to 92.86.
  • The gained 0.1% to $1.1869.
  • The strengthened 0.1% to 105.53 per dollar.
  • The weakened 0.5% to 17.4102 per dollar.

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell less than one basis point to 0.54%.
  • The yield on Treasuries declined less than one basis point to 0.12%.
  • Britain’s yield increased one basis point to 0.137%.
  • Germany’s yield climbed less than one basis point to -0.50%.

Commodities

  • West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.2% to $42.28 a barrel.
  • Gold strengthened 0.6% to $2,050.64 an ounce.
  • strengthened 2.7% to $27.68 per ounce.





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